For years, there has been one fairly reliable rule when it comes to Disney Cruise Line: if you want to sail with Mickey, be prepared to pay for it.
Disney has been able to command some pretty hefty premiums compared to Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Norwegian and even other family-oriented cruise lines. Part of that is obviously the Disney name and everything that comes along with it. But there has also been another very simple reason.
Disney hasn’t had very many ships.
That is changing. And it’s now changing faster than originally planned.
Disney Cruise Line recently updated the timeline for its massive fleet expansion, and one of the more interesting details is that the company appears to be accelerating delivery of its final group of ships.
Disney previously planned to grow to 13 ships by 2031. Under the updated timeline, Disney will reach that number in 2030.
That may only be one year sooner, but take a closer look at what’s coming in 2029 and you’ll see why this gets interesting.
Disney is about to add a whole lot of cabins in a very short amount of time.
And eventually, somebody has to sleep in them.
Disney Cruise Line’s New Accelerated Ship Schedule
Disney Cruise Line is already in the middle of the biggest expansion in its history.
For years, Disney operated just four ships: the Disney Magic, Disney Wonder, Disney Dream and Disney Fantasy. Then came the Disney Wish, followed by the Disney Treasure and Disney Destiny. The gigantic Disney Adventure recently began sailing from Singapore.
Next up is the Disney Believe, the fourth Wish-class ship, scheduled to debut in late 2027.
Then things really start moving.
Late 2027: Disney Believe
The Disney Believe will become Disney’s ninth ship and the fourth Wish-class vessel operated directly by Disney Cruise Line.
While Disney has started revealing details about the ship, we still don’t know where it will be based or what itineraries it will sail.
Wherever it goes, expect the usual new-Disney-ship excitement and, most likely, prices to match.
2029: Three Disney Ships Arrive
This is the year to watch.
Disney’s updated timeline shows three ships arriving during 2029.
One will be the Wish-class ship being developed with Oriental Land Company for the Japanese market.
The other two will be members of Disney’s brand-new class of smaller ships.
Originally, those three new-class vessels were scheduled to arrive one per year in 2029, 2030 and 2031. The new timeline moves one of them forward, putting two into service during 2029.
That’s a pretty significant amount of capacity hitting the Disney cruise market in a single year.
2030: Ship Number 13
The third ship in Disney’s new class is now scheduled for 2030 rather than 2031.
Once it arrives, Disney’s worldwide fleet will have grown to 13 ships.
Think about that for a second.
Disney Cruise Line started the year 2022 off with just four ships.
By the end of 2030, the fleet is set to grow to 13.
That isn’t gradual expansion. That’s Disney turning cruising into a much bigger piece of its vacation business.
Which brings us to the question cruisers really care about.
Does More Disney Cruise Ships Mean Lower Prices?
In theory, it should.
Cruise pricing is largely a game of supply and demand. Cruise lines want ships sailing full, and an empty stateroom makes the cruise line exactly $0 once the ship leaves the pier.
Add thousands of additional staterooms to the market and eventually there should be more pressure to fill them.
But this is Disney we’re talking about, so I wouldn’t start shopping for that $299 Disney cruise just yet.
Disney has something most cruise lines would love to have: an enormous built-in audience willing to pay a premium for the brand.
Still, going from a tiny fleet to 13 ships changes the equation.
Disney doesn’t necessarily have to become cheap.
It just has to occasionally have more cabins than people willing to pay Disney’s price for them.
That’s when things get interesting.
Disney Is Avoiding One Huge Pricing Problem
There is a reason Disney isn’t simply parking all these ships in Port Canaveral and flooding the Caribbean with Mickey Mouse.
The expansion is global.
The Disney Adventure is sailing from Singapore. The Oriental Land Company ship will serve Japan. Disney already regularly sends ships to Europe, Alaska, Australia and other markets.
The new class of approximately 3,000-passenger ships is being designed to visit destinations that can’t necessarily accommodate Disney’s larger ships.
That allows Disney to spread all this new capacity around the world instead of dumping thousands of additional cabins onto three- and four-night Bahamas cruises from Florida.
It also means anyone expecting Disney cruise prices to suddenly collapse simply because there are 13 ships is probably going to be disappointed.
New Ships Will Still Get the Disney Premium
There’s another reason the average Disney cruise probably isn’t getting dramatically cheaper.
People love new ships.
Whenever a cruise line launches something new, demand tends to follow it. With Disney, multiply that by the enormous number of rabid fans who want to be among the first to sail a new vessel, see the new shows, eat in the new restaurants and spend more on inaugural merchandise than they spent for the cruise.
The Disney Believe will have no problem commanding premium pricing when it debuts.
The same will probably happen with the new class arriving beginning in 2029.
If you’re looking for Disney bargains, those probably aren’t going to be the ships I’d start with.
I’d look in the other direction.
The Older Disney Ships Could Become the Bargains
This is where Disney’s fleet expansion gets much more interesting to me.
Disney still has to fill the Magic, Wonder, Dream and Fantasy while people are chasing shiny new ships.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing.
I’ve always believed some of Disney’s older ships offer a better traditional cruise experience anyway, particularly if you’re not obsessed with having the newest attraction or restaurant.
But they are going to become increasingly difficult to sell at the same premium as the newest ships.
That’s where I expect the opportunities to appear.
Not necessarily huge across-the-board fare cuts, but more targeted discounts on certain ships, dates and departure ports.
Disney already uses Florida resident offers, military rates and percentage-off promotions to fill sailings that aren’t selling as quickly as they’d like them to. As the fleet grows, don’t be surprised if you see more dates showing up under those types of offers.
Disney doesn’t have to advertise a giant “75% off Second Person + Kids Sail Free” cruise sale.
It can quietly discount the sailings where inventory isn’t moving.
In fact, that’s pretty much how Disney already does it.
Secondary Homeports May Be Where the Deals Are
Another place I’d watch closely is wherever Disney puts the older ships as newer vessels enter the fleet.
Galveston, San Diego, Vancouver and other seasonal or secondary homeports could become particularly interesting.
A Disney ship sailing from Port Canaveral has Disney World sitting right down the road and a massive stream of Disney vacationers revenue already traveling to Central Florida.
A ship sailing from somewhere like Galveston doesn’t have quite the same advantage.
If Disney starts moving older ships into more regional markets, pricing may have to do some of the work to convince people to book them.
That’s especially true when families compare Disney against Royal Caribbean, Carnival or Norwegian sailing from the exact same port.
Suddenly the Mouse has to work a little harder to get that booking.
Don’t Forget About the Magic and Wonder
There is also a giant unanswered question hanging over this entire expansion.
What happens to the Disney Magic and Disney Wonder?
Disney says it is growing to a fleet of 13 ships, which suggests those ships remain part of the fleet at least through the expansion.
But the Magic entered service in 1998 and the Wonder followed in 1999.
By the time Disney’s new ships arrive in 2029 and 2030, both will be more than 30 years old.
Cruise ships can certainly operate beyond 30 years, and Disney has kept both vessels in excellent condition, but it’s rare to see ships that old still sailing unless you’re talking about Margaritaville at Sea Paradise. Operating older ships gets more expensive, and it’s hard not to notice that Disney’s upcoming smaller vessels will occupy a similar niche while offering much newer technology.
If Disney eventually retires the Magic and Wonder, the supply increase won’t be quite as dramatic over the long term.
If Disney keeps all 13 ships sailing?
Then Disney is going to need a lot more Disney cruisers, which really isn’t that hard to find.
So Should You Wait for Disney Prices to Drop?
No.
If you’ve found the Disney cruise you want at a price you’re comfortable paying, I wouldn’t sit around waiting for some massive fleet-wide Disney price correction in 2029.
That’s probably not happening.
But I do think Disney cruisers are going to have more opportunities to find deals as this expansion plays out.
The trick will be flexibility.
Don’t automatically chase the newest ship.
Look at the older ships.
Compare different departure ports.
Check Florida resident, military and other Disney special offers when you’re eligible.
Watch shoulder-season dates.
And don’t assume that two Disney ships sailing similar itineraries are going to be priced anywhere near each other.
The days when Disney Cruise Line could spread its customers across four or five ships are long gone.
By the end of the decade, Disney will be trying to fill 13 of them.
That’s a lot of Mickey ears that need to be occupying staterooms every week.
