AAA put out its annual cruise forecast this morning, and the number for next year is 22.4 million. That’s how many Americans AAA expects to take an ocean cruise in 2027, up 3.6% from about 21.6 million this year. If it holds, 2027 will be the fifth record year in a row.
For some perspective, 14.2 million Americans cruised in 2019. The industry passed that mark in 2023 and has kept climbing every year since, and the 2027 projection works out to 57% more people than cruised the year before the shutdown.
The pace is slowing a little. The count jumped by more than two million between 2023 and 2024, and this time it’s closer to 800,000. I wouldn’t read much into that. The big rebound years were always going to level off at some point, and the cruise lines are launching new ships at a pretty good pace.
AAA’s vice president of travel, Debbie Haas, said in the release that “Cruising isn’t just growing, it’s becoming a go-to vacation for more Americans,” and she credited the sheer range of ships, destinations and styles of cruising out there now.
Most of those 22.4 million people are still headed to the same place, though. The Caribbean makes up 71% of U.S. cruise passenger volume, and a big reason is how much money the lines have sunk into private destinations down there. Carnival opened Celebration Key, Norwegian added the Great Tides Waterpark, and Royal Caribbean keeps building out Perfect Day. The newest and biggest ships tend to get sent to the same region, so the two things feed each other.
Florida’s Ports Keep Getting Busier
Miami, Port Canaveral and Fort Lauderdale are still the three busiest cruise ports in the world, and AAA expects them to handle about 26.9% of all passenger movements in 2027. PortMiami should take back the top spot with roughly 11.2%, with Port Canaveral close behind at 10.4% after holding the busiest port title for a year.
Canaveral has a big year coming regardless. For its 2027 fiscal year, which started October 1st, the port is expecting around 10.9 million passenger movements (each time somebody boards or gets off a ship counts as one) and 23 homeported ships, up from 9 million movements and 20 ships last year. It’s also planning on 33% more days with five or six ships in port at the same time. If you’re sailing out of there on one of those days, give yourself extra time, because the Beachline backs up and the garages fill. Driving over the night before isn’t a bad idea.
The new ships are a big part of it. Royal Caribbean’s Legend of the Seas starts sailing from Fort Lauderdale next month, which gives Florida three Icon Class ships once you count Icon of the Seas in Miami and Star of the Seas at Canaveral. Carnival Festivale debuts at Port Canaveral in May 2027, and MSC World Atlantic follows there next fall. Both of those carry more than 6,000 passengers.
Shorter Trips and Repeat Cruisers
Seven nights is still the most popular cruise length, but shorter sailings keep picking up. In 2025, 45% of U.S. ocean cruise passengers booked six nights or fewer, up from 39% in 2019. A three or four night Bahamas run is easy to squeeze in around work or school, and it’s how a lot of people try cruising for the first time. The lines are happy to sell them, since more sailings means more cabins. If you haven’t done a short one in a while, expect a busier and louder ship than you’d get on a longer itinerary, especially over a weekend.
The stat that probably explains this whole forecast is the repeat rate. AAA says more than 90% of U.S. cruisers rate their trip as good or very good, and 93% go on to book another one. People try it, they like it, and they come back, usually with somebody new in tow.
For those who cruise a lot, all of this is a mixed bag. More passengers is how we get all these new ships. But it does mean booking earlier than you might be used to, especially for holiday weeks, new ships and the better cabin categories. Holding out for a last minute price drop can still work on older ships and off weeks, but I wouldn’t count on it for a sailing you really want. The same goes for specialty dining, shows, excursions and cabanas, which are worth reserving as soon as your window opens. And if the crowds are starting to wear on you, there’s a whole world outside the Caribbean. Repositioning cruises, smaller homeports and longer itineraries tend to feel a lot calmer, record year or not.
